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Does China’s weak domestic demand really lead to excess capacity?: People's Daily_我的网站

一 | 据《北京时间》1月9日报道，第一批登上火星的宇航员面临的最大障碍之一是缺水。人们需要水来喝，农作物需要水来生长，甚至制造火箭燃料返回地球。

二 |     

    A worker fulfills orders for energy-saving and environmentally friendly boilers destined for export in a manufacturing enterprise in Nantong, East China's Jiangsu Province on August 4, 2026. The enterprise offers products including industrial waste disposal equipment, with sales to more than 30 countries and regions. Photo: CNS PhotoIn recent years, some economies, anxious about their own industrial competitiveness and market position, have politicized economic and trade issues, taking turns to hype false narratives such as "China overcapacity" and a "China Shock 2.0," and using them as pretexts to roll out protectionist measures.
But what are the facts on the ground?
China's Ministry of Commerce recently released a document titled China's Position on the So-Called Excess Capacity Issue. Reviewing the evolution of the global capacity landscape from a historical perspective, it offers an objective analysis of how industrial subsidies, trade surpluses, economic imbalances and market competition relate to "overcapacity," sets out China's policy practices and the direction of its efforts, and puts forward China's ideas and proposals - a forceful response to the "China overcapacity" narrative. 
Plainly, the argument that "China's inadequate domestic demand gives rise to excess capacity" rests on a logical sleight of hand - it takes a localized phenomenon at the micro level of the market and applies it wholesale to the structure of the macroeconomy, a picture far removed from reality.
China is not only a major manufacturing power but also a major consuming power. Domestic demand has long been the main engine of the Chinese economy.
To see through the logical fallacy of the "overcapacity" narrative, one must first be clear about where the Chinese economy actually sits in the global landscape.
In the course of economic globalization, China has actively integrated itself into the international division of industrial labor and become the "world's factory" in the truest sense. Chinese manufacturing has enriched the global supply of goods, lowered living costs for consumers in countries around the world, and played an important part in easing global inflationary pressure. But to define China simply as a "producer" on that basis, and from there to conclude that it suffers from "inadequate domestic demand and overcapacity," is a proposition that does not hold water.
From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 93 percent to China's economic growth, with consumption and investment accounting for an average of 55 percent and 38 percent respectively. China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose from 23.8 trillion yuan ($3.53 trillion) in 2013 to 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, doubling in size.
Measured at the World Bank's purchasing power parity rates, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were 1.7 times those of the US, making the country the world's largest market for consumer goods in all but name. China today ranks first globally in the physical volume of goods consumed, and its per capita annual consumption of some industrial products already approaches the levels seen in developed economies.
China keeps expanding its domestic demand and is working toward a higher-level balance between supply and demand.
Growth in China's total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed somewhat in recent years, and some have taken this as proof of weak domestic demand. That reading is neither objective nor complete.
A strong domestic market provides strategic support for Chinese modernization. The outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period devotes a dedicated part to building such a market, stressing the need to adhere to the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, to expand effective investment, to further implement special actions to boost consumption, to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, to unleashing the potential of service consumption, to strengthening the foundation of residents' consumption and to continuously improve the consumption environment - using new demand to guide new supply, and using new supply to create new demand, so as to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand, achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.
The slowdown in retail sales growth is consistent with China's shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and it also reflects the upgrading of the country's consumption structure. China's consumer market is moving faster from one dominated by goods toward one in which goods and services carry equal weight. Spending on services is growing rapidly and is expected to account for more than half of the total by 2030.
China's super-sized market is not only the bedrock of its own development but also a broad platform on which countries around the world can share in the dividends of that growth.
China has ranked as the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries and regions. It has granted zero-tariff treatment to 63 countries and regions, becoming the first major economy in the world to extend full zero-tariff coverage to every African country and every least developed country that has diplomatic relations with it. It is also the only country to host an international import expo, having staged eight editions of the China International Import Expo with cumulative intended deals worth more than $580 billion. Over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25) period, China's cumulative imports topped 90 trillion yuan. These facts and figures show clearly that China is not just the "world's factory" but, still more, the "world's market."
Looking ahead, China's middle-income group is set to exceed 800 million people within little more than a decade, and per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country. With vast room for consumption and ample potential and vitality, domestic demand will remain the main engine of China's economic development and will keep injecting strong momentum into world economic growth.
This was compiled and translated by the Global Times English edition based on an article published in the "Chisu Jinsheng" economic commentary column of the People's Daily on August 6, 2026.
。因此，缺乏可用的液态水是人类登陆火星的主要障碍。

三 | 但是火星上有很多冰。

四 | 美国宇航局的一项新研究表明，我们可以在冰上钻孔，以获得足够的水来维持火星上的人类生命。去年，在火星表面下发现了冰川，这一重大发现为第一批宇航员登陆火星提供了“取之不尽，用之不竭”的水。研究人员说，在火星上的8个地方发现了地下冰川，有些位于地表以下几英尺（1米）的深处，还有一些位于地表以下100米或更深处。研究人员分析了火星勘测轨道飞行器收集的数据，发现地下冰川的成分“几乎是纯冰”。美国宇航局的一项研究模拟了钻冰和融化冰从冰川中取水的过程。德克萨斯州航空航天公司（Aerospace Corporation）的高级执行官斯蒂芬霍夫曼（Stephen Hoffman）领导的研究人员说：“火星表面曾经有很多水，但现在人们一致认为火星表面非常干燥。

五 | 几项研究表明，火星的许多地方都有丰富的水资源，包括那些被认为是人类在火星上登陆的替代着陆点的地方。如果这些水资源可以用于载人登陆火星，那么执行这些任务的方式将发生巨大变化。研究小组考虑使用一个名为罗德井的水库，这个水库是在20世纪60年代发明的，并被用于在偏远地区提供水源，例如阿蒙森-斯科特南极勘测站。研究小组写道：“对现有的从地下冰川中提取水的技术进行评估，我们发现了一种可以从火星中提取水的技术：在火星冰川覆盖的表面上钻孔，加热冰以形成地下水库。”罗德井的原理是从表面钻孔，钻孔进入冰中，通过融化冰形成一个水库，然后从水库中提取水。通过不断加热储液罐，可以获得稳定的液态水。在火星上，一口罗德井一天能产生380升的水。这相当于美国人每天人均用水量，但大约是国际空间站宇航员用水量的10倍。研究人员说，火星探测器可以改装成具有钻井能力。根据最近在《科学》杂志上发表的一篇文章，尽管冰在火星上早已为人所知，但更好地了解冰的深度和分布对于未来载人登陆火星至关重要。亚利桑那大学月球和行星实验室的研究员肖恩·伯恩说：“水对任何地方的人来说都是必不可少的，随身携带是非常不方便的。”“以前，我们设想在火星上获取水的方法是从空气或岩石中获取水，”伯恩说。现在，我们想象从火星表面以下的冰中获取水。不需要高科技的解决方案，只要一桶水就够了。

六 | 水源靠近火星上的人类登陆点，而不是极地。火星南半球和北半球有地下冰川，纬度在55到58度之间。研究人员认为，这些冰川形成相对较晚，因为其表面相对平坦，没有受到其他天体撞击形成的撞击坑。冰川靠近极地地区，火星上的冬天非常寒冷，不适合人类长期生存。但是，如果能在这些冰川上钻一口井，研究人员将对火星气候的演变和生命的可能性有一个很好的了解。

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Published on:09:00:41