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A | 　　特朗普总统威胁，将加拿大进口汽车关税由 25% 上调至 50%，为本就饱受贸易战冲击的汽车行业再添动荡　　内容概要　　特朗普总统威胁把从加拿大进口的汽车及汽车零部件关税，从 25% 翻倍提高到 50%。 A retired Indian Air Marshall has told Sputnik that it is already “evident” that the developing countries don’t support anti-Russia sentiments of the G7 club, further arguing that most of the ‘Global South’ even holds the US and its allies “responsible” for precipitating the Ukraine crisis as well as its knock-on effects which led to global energy instability.,“The rest of the world is smarter in understanding than the western countries on how the [Ukraine conflict] emerged and who are the causal factors for this particular problem,” said Air Marshal (retired) Muthumanikam Matheswaran, who heads the Indian think-tank Peninsula Foundation.,Matheswaran has also served in the past as deputy chief of India’s Integrated Defense Staff (IDS).,“Around two-thirds of the world is not cooperating with the western countries’ push to support Ukraine or to condemn Russia. I think that they see that the issue is far more complex,” the former fighter pilot added.,Russia has said that NATO’s eastward expansion into Europe around Russian borders was the major reason for the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine. China has backed Moscow in holding NATO responsible for the Ukraine crisis.,India has kept its counsel over its Western partners, though New Delhi's permanent representative to the UN has appealed for diplomacy and dialogue in the crisis.,Meanwhile, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) nations have decried unilateral sanctions against Russia. BRICS nations make up 41 percent of the world's population, 24 percent of international GDP, and accounts for 16 percent of global trade.,“[The developing nations] actually hold the West responsible for the present crisis. Therefore, I don’t think that the ‘Global South’ is with them at all,” Matheswaran remarked.,The observations came a day after the G7 Summit in Germany concluded. A joint communique issued after the meeting called for “phasing out or banning the import of Russian coal and oil” from the global energy chain, even despite its recognition that the “burden” of rocketing energy prices has resulted in “market instability” and aggravated “inequalities nationally and internationally”.,Oil Prices Up Another 2% on Signs UAE, Saudi Arabia Have Maxed Out ProductionYesterday, 00:55 GMT,Crude oil prices have been at their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis in the wake of the US and European Union (EU)-led attempts to phase out Russian crude supplies from the international market in retaliation for Moscow’s special military operation in Ukraine.,The G7 leaders also said in their joint statement that the western allies would “reduce reliance on civil nuclear and related goods from Russia”.,Food prices have soared around the world after West-led efforts to ban Russian exports in March. The UN-backed World Food Programme (WFP) warned last week that “millions of people across the world are at risk of being driven into starvation".,G7 Could Worsen Global Energy and Food Shortages,Matheswaran reckoned that additional sanctions against Russia, as mooted in the G7 statement, could exacerbate the present crisis, which has led to high levels of inflation throughout developed and developing countries.,“Russia is not a small country that can be downsized with sanctions. It is a nuclear power and the world’s largest country with an enormous number of resources. Much of Europe depends on Russian oil and gas as well as its resources,” the Indian expert said.,“So, western powers need to find different solutions if they want to resolve their conflict with Russia. They must not coerce or push the rest of the world for their own, narrow objectives,” argued Matheswaran.,“It will cause more issues with food security, economic downturn,” he added.,Further, the member of the think-tank lauded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not backing down on New Delhi’s decision to buy discounted Russian crude against the backdrop of a spike in global prices.,Russian Energy Supplies to India Have Increased 'Dozens of Times', Russian Ambassador Says27 June, 15:02 GMT,Modi told his G7 counterparts that India would “continue” to pursue its “energy security”, amid sustained pressure from Washington and Brussels on New Delhi to reduce its reliance on Russian oil.,G7 is ‘Irrelevant’, BRICS and G20 need to Step Up To Their Role,Matheswaran said that the G7 no longer represented the realities of the contemporary world order and groupings such as the G20 and BRICS were better equipped to deal with the problems facing the global community.,Indonesia, at present chairing the G20, has rejected calls by western governments to exclude Moscow from this year's G20 Summit in Jakarta.,“The G7 is irrelevant in today’s global structure. What should matter is groupings such as the G20, which reflects the larger global community and rationalizes economic processes across the world,” he said.,New Development Bank’s Success in West Depends on BRICS Risk-Taking Ability on Governance: Economist25 June, 11:18 GMT,“The G7 is pretty much a collection of countries which are erstwhile imperial powers and they continue to, albeit in a different manner, practice that same process,” he said.,“They dominate the global economic system and they want everyone else to tailor their policies and structures to bring in benefits to the G7,” the Indian academic added.,Matheswaran said that BRICS, which also held an online leaders’ summit days before the G7 meeting, needs to step up to its role in global economic, political and security decision-making.,He noted that other developing countries such as Argentina, which has also applied for BRICS’ membership, must also be embraced.,Matheswaran also reckoned that the “privileged access” of G7 democracies to financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank needed to be “downsized and rationalized”.。　　美加之间再度燃起的贸易战，本周进一步升温。特朗普公开表态：“我们不需要加拿大，是他们需要我们。”　　但美国汽车行业看法截然不同。一旦特朗普兑现威胁，将加拿大产汽车与零部件关税上调至 50%，底特律各大车企旗下一批利润最高的产品将遭受重创。　　斯特兰蒂斯（Stellantis）在边境另一侧的安大略省温莎工厂，生产克莱斯勒品牌的大捷龙 MPV；通用汽车在安大略省奥沙瓦工厂生产皮卡；福特除肯塔基州工厂之外，今年晚些时候还将在多伦多附近的奥克维尔工厂投产 F 系列重型皮卡。

B | 福特与通用均在加拿大生产发动机，供给在美国市场销售的皮卡与 SUV。　　行业数据机构 Omdia 数据显示，加拿大是美国第二大贸易伙伴，2025 年加拿大贡献了北美汽车总产量的 8%。虽然相较于十年前 13% 的占比有所下滑（产能与岗位向墨西哥和美国本土转移），但加拿大依旧是重要的整车及零部件生产国，同时也是汽车的重要消费市场，还是美国大型皮卡最大的出口目的地。　　瑞银分析师表示，丰田与本田受关税上调冲击最大，加拿大进口车辆约占两家车企美国市场销量的十分之一。　　据熟悉车企想法的人士透露，车企普遍认为特朗普定下的 1 月 1 日生效期限，说明高额关税更多是谈判筹码，而非板上钉钉的落地威胁。多数企业将观望谈判进展，暂不考虑调整生产布局。

C | 福特、斯特兰蒂斯、本田、丰田、通用汽车均拒绝置评。

D | 　　但风险真实存在。

E | 丰田加拿大分公司前副总裁斯蒂芬・贝蒂称，如果特朗普落实征收关税，加拿大手中最有力的反制手段之一，就是对福特 F‑150 等美式全尺寸皮卡征收关税。　　“加拿大并非没有反制选项，” 贝蒂说，“希望事态不会走到那一步。”　　密歇根州汽车零部件厂商 Leggera Technologies 首席执行官托马斯・科瓦尔表示，拟议的关税或许会让自家企业受益，公司生产的镁制零部件，正好和加拿大铝制零部件形成竞争。　　“但我更担心整个制造业大局，” 科瓦尔表示。经历新冠疫情、通胀、多轮关税冲击之后，“我不知道整个行业还能承受多大的额外压力。”　　关税翻倍的风险恰逢《美墨加协定》（USMCA）复审谈判，这份三方协定对美国汽车行业日常运营至关重要。　　代表通用、福特、斯特兰蒂斯的行业协会 —— 美国汽车政策理事会负责人马特・布朗特表示：“我们敦促美加谈判代表达成协议，提升北美汽车产业竞争力，顺利完成美墨加协定复审。”　　特朗普第二任期上台之初，就已经针对加拿大进口钢铁、汽车征收关税，加拿大随即对美国产汽车、金属产品征收报复性关税。汽车整车与零部件往往需要多次跨境流转，目前加拿大产汽车及零部件适用 25% 关税，附带部分豁免条款。　　面对关税的反复摇摆，底特律车企一直在规划加大美国本土制造投资。加拿大汽车工人工会本月称，受特朗普施压企业把产能迁回美国的影响，斯特兰蒂斯有意出售多伦多周边的一处工厂。　　但汽车产能跨地区转移既不快，也不容易。制造业回迁往往耗时数年；而关税政策频繁变动，让企业前景充满不确定性。　　巴克莱分析师丹・利维在周一研报中写道：加拿大产车辆约占美国汽车销量的 6%，50% 的整车关税 “理论上尚可承受”。但核心疑问在于，符合美墨加协定规则的零部件，是否还能够继续享受关税豁免。“我们认为这一点存在巨大不确定性。”　　美国 7 月拒绝续期美墨加协定，触发协定复审程序。

F | 随后特朗普威胁对价值 200 亿美元的加拿大商品征收 50% 关税，部分目的是为谈判施压。　　福特上周称，接近达成协议，加拿大汽车关税有望降至 15%。但加拿大总理马克・卡尼表示谈判已经破裂：美方拒绝给予中重型车辆关税减免，如果该条件落实，加拿大汽车产业长期竞争力将受损。　　全美汽车工人联合会（UAW）主席肖恩・费恩原本支持特朗普现行汽车关税政策，但他认为这次针对加拿大的关税威胁方向错误，应当把贸易施压目标转向其他国家。　　费恩周二表态：“如果我们要提高关税，目标应当是那些车企持续向外转移岗位的国家 —— 当地工人时薪仅有 3 美元、工作环境恶劣、独立工会遭到打压。”　　行业顾问、通用汽车前高管沃伦・布朗表示，如果关税落地，车企大概率上调车辆标价与各类附加费用，明年汽车销量或将下滑。